Without a doubt, the Super Bowl is the number one wagering sporting event in the world. In Las Vegas alone, it is estimated that sports books took in a record $119 million in wagers on the game and proposition bets in 2015. If one includes all the money wagered through online sports books and illegally, the number could have easily been $500 million.
While this year’s matchup features two small market teams, the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos, the possibility of Broncos QB Peyton Manning playing his last game as a professional should be enough to keep interest in the game at a high level. Here’s a look at the game and a subsequent look at some proposition bets that might be worth considering.
The Game
Currently, the Panthers are favored at -6 with the over/under set at 45. This will be the first trip to the Super Bowl for the Panthers. They are coming off of a tremendous regular season (15-1) while making rather short work of its NFC playoff opponents with a 31-24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks and a dominant win over the Arizona Cardinals 49-15. Carolina’s offense was arguably one of the best in the league, averaging just over 31 PPG and increasing that total in the playoffs. They are led by MVP candidate QB Cam Newton who accounted for over 4,400 yards of offense and 45 touchdowns. While the offense garnered all the glory, the defense was more than respectable, ending up ranked #6 in the league for both points allowed per game (19.3) and yards per game with 322.9.
You can’t talk about the Broncos without mentioning Manning. As the NFL’s all-time leading passer in both yards and touchdowns, you can’t help but respect him for his accomplishments. That said, this was a difficult season for the future Hall of Famer. Aside from missing six games due to injury, he only threw for a little over 2,200 yards with a dismal 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. As a result of his ineffectiveness, the offense finished middle of the pack in most categories. The good news is Denver’s defense was the best in the league, allowing just 283.1 yards per game. They managed to keep games close enough for the offense to invent ways to win.
The Pick: The Broncos figure to have difficulty moving the ball against an active Panthers defense. The one thing Denver’s defense never encountered this year was a QB that can actually run the ball. Newton has a way of punishing overly aggressive defenses and that’s exactly how Denver plays. Take Carolina -6 (very small lean to the under)
Prop Bets
If you are looking for a little extra action to keep things interesting, consider these prop bets.
Coin Toss – take heads at -105 (just because)
First Team to Score – Take Carolina -150 (Denver only scored once in 2014 Super Bowl)
Which Quarter Will Have the Highest Point Total – Take the 3rd Qtr at +450 (after a tight, conservative 1st half, look for Carolina to step on the gas in the 2nd half)
Longest Touchdown over/under 44.5 Yards – Take the under (neither team was particularly adept at long scoring plays)
Margin of Victory – take Panthers by 13-18 points +450 (getting the 14 and 17 represents value in a game where Denver might have trouble scoring
